Comparative Market Analysis · March 2026
Unit 37 — Pricing & Market Analysis
3rd-floor, 1-bed/1.5-bath, 1,013 sq ft oceanfront condo. Fully renovated, ocean/pool/garden views, large covered balcony. Last sold November 2022 at $420,000.
Building Floor Structure
Carlton House is a 4-story, 32-unit building (8 units/floor). Unit numbers follow the floor: X1–X8 per level. Unit 37 = Floor 3.
4th Floor
414243
444546
47 ↑ $500K listed48
3rd Floor
313233
343536
37 ← Subject38
$420K sold '22
2nd Floor
212223
242526
2728
1st Floor
111213
1415 ↑ $999K listed16
1718
Closed Sales — Carlton House (2022–2025)
All publicly recorded transactions across MLS, Zillow, Compass, Redfin, and Palm Beach County records.
| Unit | Beds/Ba | Sq Ft | Floor | Sale Date | Sale Price | $/Sq Ft | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 1/1.5 | 1,013 | 4th | Feb 2022 | $340,000 | $336 | Pre-peak |
| 37 ★ | 1/1.5 | 1,013 | 3rd | Nov 2022 | $420,000 | $415 | Subject Unit |
| 22 | 2/2 | 1,408 | 2nd | Jan 2023 | $749,000 | $532 | Peak pricing |
| 28 | 2/2 | 1,504 | 2nd | Jan 2023 | $898,000 | $597 | Peak pricing |
| 34 | 2/2 | 1,408 | 3rd | Jul 2023 | $575,000 | $408 | Unrenovated |
| 16 | 2/2 | 1,344 | 1st | Nov 2023 | $650,000 | $484 | Listed $829K → $650K |
| 18 | 2/2 | 1,504 | 1st | Jun 2024 | $885,000 | $588 | Full reno premium |
| 44 | 2/2 | 1,408 | 4th | May 2025 | $710,000 | $504 | Recent |
| 16 | 2/2 | 1,344 | 1st | May 2025 | $610,000 | $454 | Recent |
Unit 37 vs. Unit 47 (same 1,013 sqft): Unit 47 (4th floor) sold at $340K in Feb 2022 — before the market peak. Unit 37 (3rd floor) sold at $420K in Nov 2022 at peak pricing, fully renovated. The $80K difference reflects timing and renovation level, not floor premium. Unit 47 is now listed at $500K, setting the current ceiling.
Active Listings — Carlton House (March 2026)
Current competition and reference points for pricing unit 37.
| Unit | Beds/Ba | Sq Ft | Floor | List Price | $/Sq Ft | DOM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 2/2 | 1,344 | 1st | $999,900 | $744 | 179 | Active — Aggressive |
| 46 | 2/2 | 1,344 | 4th | $799,000 | $594 | 150 | Under Contract |
| 47 | 1/1.5 | 1,013 | 4th | $500,000 | $494 | 88 | Active — Key Comp |
Pricing strategy note: Unit 47 at $500K on the top (4th) floor is your direct comp and natural ceiling. Unit 37 on the 3rd floor should list 4–6% below to position competitively, landing at $469K–$479K. Pricing above $485K risks extended market time in today's 90–130 DOM environment.
Price Drivers & Premiums
What actually moves value at Carlton House — ranked by impact.
Renovation Premium
$80–$150/sqft
Unrenovated unit 34 sold at $408/sqft vs. unit 18 at $588/sqft
↑ Highest single impact
Floor Premium (1-Bed)
Modest
4-story building — timing & reno level outweigh raw floor number
→ Use market timing to compare
2-Bed vs. 1-Bed Premium
55–80%
Total price premium; narrower on $/sqft basis ($454–$597 vs. $336–$415)
↑ Larger units drive bulk of value
Capital Improvements
Positive
Elevator, concrete, fiber, alarm all completed — reduces buyer risk
↑ Marketability advantage
55+ / No Rental Rule
Narrows Pool
Restricts buyers; longer average DOM expected vs. non-age-restricted buildings
↓ Affects buyer demand
HOA Monthly
~$1,293
Affects effective monthly cost; reduces buyer purchasing power on financed deals
→ Factor into net pricing
Highland Beach Condo Market Trends
Market-wide conditions since the 2022 peak, sourced from Branham Group, Judith Randon Realty, Zillow, and Redfin.
2022 Peak
$749K–$898K
↑ Pandemic migration surge
Carlton House 2-beds at highest recorded $/sqft ($532–$597)
May 2025
$995K median
↑ +22% YoY · 150 active units
14 closed sales · 14.3 months supply · inventory +43% YoY
Jan 2026
$689K median
↓ –28% YoY · 59 active units
5 closed sales · 5.5 months supply · inventory –61% YoY
Market Conditions (Early 2026)
- Overall HB home value ~$879K, down ~5% past year (Zillow)
- Average DOM: 90–130 days for correctly priced units
- Price reductions common — Unit 46 reduced from $889K to $799K
- Price/sqft range: $400–$600 for 1960s oceanfront boutiques
- Luxury towers: $1,000–$1,400+/sqft (different buyer pool)
- Buyer leverage persists across most condo segments
Carlton House Advantages in This Market
- Completed capital improvements reduce buyer due-diligence risk
- Limited competing 1-bed oceanfront inventory keeps floor supported
- Unit 37's renovation already done — no buyer discount needed
- Direct ocean/pool/garden views differentiate from inland condos
- Unit 46 going under contract confirms buyer demand still active
- Unit 47 listing creates a natural price ceiling to undercut
Key market note: January 2026 inventory drop (150 → 59 active units) reflects fewer listings entering the market, not a demand surge. New pending sales also declined 27% YoY. The small monthly sample sizes (5–14 sales) cause wide month-to-month swings in Highland Beach medians — track rolling 3-month averages for more reliable trend signals.
Pricing Recommendation Summary
Conservative (Quick Sale)
$449K–$459K
Est. 45–60 DOM · Positions ~10% below Unit 47
Recommended (CMA Target)
$465K–$475K
Est. 75–100 DOM · Competitive vs. Unit 47 at $500K
Ceiling (Test the Market)
$485K–$491K
Est. 120+ DOM · AVM top range; requires strong buyer
Buyer pool caveat: The 55+ age restriction and no-rental rule narrow the buyer pool significantly. Budget for 90–120 days on market at any price point, and factor in the $1,293/month HOA when counseling buyers on total monthly cost.